New report shows opportunities for work, study after matric remain limited

What are the actual job prospects for young South Africans once they matriculate? To what extent are recent matriculants finding jobs or transitioning into post-school education and training (PSET) opportunities?

These are the critical questions explored in a new report by researchers at Stellenbosch University (SU).

The report titled “School completion, the matric and post-school transitions in South Africa” investigates school completion trends in South Africa, matric performance and youth transitions beyond school with a particular focus on recent matriculants. It compiles research from several studies commissioned within the COVID-Generation Project, made possible by financial support from Allan and Gill Gray Philanthropies.

“This study highlights how increasingly larger proportions of recent matriculants find themselves unable to access meaningful opportunities. The rising numbers of youth leaving school with a matric, particularly in recent years, is not being met with enough opportunities beyond school — whether in work or in post-school education and training (PSET),” says Dr Gabrielle Wills from the Research on Socio-Economic Policy Group (RESEP) in the Department of Economics at SU. She wrote the report with contributions from colleagues Rebecca Selkirk and John Kruger.

“Conditions in South Africa’s labour market must improve and further expansion in quality PSET is required for the country to realise the benefits of rising educational attainment and progress for national development,” adds Wills.

She points out that one of every two recent matriculants (defined as 15-24-year-olds with 12 years of completed schooling) in the first quarter of 2024 was ‘Not in employment, education or training’ (NEET), that is, not working, studying, or participating in a training programme.

“Before the COVID-19 pandemic (2014–2019), around 44–45% of recent matriculants were classified as NEET. This figure peaked at a staggering 55% in early 2022 and remained alarmingly high at 49.8% at the start of 2024. These trends mirror broader increases in NEET rates among all youth aged 15-24, which have risen from 32.2% in the first quarter of 2014 to 35.4% in the first quarter of 2024.

“Even larger NEET rate increases were seen for youth aged 25-34, rising from 45% in the first quarter of 2014 to 52% in the first quarter of 2024. This is a concern where NEET status is associated with worse mental health, particularly among young men.”

Despite rising NEET rates among recent matriculants in the past decade, obtaining a matric qualification remains important, says Wills.

“Nearly half (5 out of 10) of matriculants aged 15-24 were classified as NEET in the first quarter of 2024. But almost 8 out of 10 of their peers who had dropped out of school were NEET. The prospects of finding a job, and what you can earn in that job, with a matric also remain much higher than not having a matric but there is a much larger and growing advantage to having a post-school qualification over having a matric.”

According to Wills, where you live matters for post-matriculation opportunities.

“For instance, among 15-24-year-olds with a matric living in the Western Cape in 2023/24, about a third were NEET compared to 61% of their peers in Mpumalanga and two-thirds (68%) of their peers in Northwest Province.”

She adds that recent NEET matriculants are now more likely to find themselves among the long-term unemployed.

“The road to opportunity beyond school is harder and more hazardous than a decade ago when finding a job was easier for matriculants than it will be for the matric class of 2024. In 2014, 27% of NEET youth aged 15-24 with a matric had been searching for work for over a year. By the first quarter of 2020, this had increased to nearly 33% and remained significantly elevated at 32% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2014.”

“The likelihood of economically active youth (including discouraged work seekers) with a matric (12 years of completed schooling) having a job at the start of 2024 roughly resembled the chances of youth without a matric having a job eight to ten years ago.”

Wills says the youth NEET problem has worsened because of insufficient expansion in PSET opportunities in the past decade amidst a decline in employment prospects.

She emphasises the need for more enrolments in PSET to match the rising tide in school completion or to absorb youth who cannot find jobs.

“Despite ambitious plans from the government for significant expansion in PSET opportunities, the proportion of youth aged 15-24 (or youth aged 15-24 with a matric) enrolled in PSET did not improve much between 2014 and 2024. With projected declines in real per student spending on PSET as South Africa addresses high national debt servicing costs, significant growth in PSET is unlikely to occur anytime soon.”

“We are also falling significantly behind other middle-income countries in getting youth into tertiary education. For example, 2021 estimates from the World Bank identify South Africa’s tertiary enrolment rate at 25%, compared to 57% in Brazil and 67% in China. This gap between South Africa’s tertiary enrolment rate and that of comparative countries has increased since the 90s.”

Wills says the trend of more youth leaving school with a matric since South Africa’s transition to democracy is worth celebrating.

“At the dawn of democracy, fewer than a third of 25- to 34-year-olds had successfully achieved a matric or equivalent qualification. Thirty years later, the proportion of individuals in this age group having completed their schooling almost doubled to 57%.”

“With unprecedented increases in the numbers of Grade 12s achieving a pass in the National Senior Certificate in recent years, the school completion rate (reflecting the likelihood that a youth will leave the schooling system with a matric) is even higher, reaching almost 64% at the start of 2024 (up from 48% in 2010).”

“However, the country’s educational progress is occurring alongside slow economic growth, high youth unemployment and public finance constraints in expanding PSET opportunities.”

Wills recommends a multi-faceted approach to create meaningful opportunities for youth transitioning out of the schooling system.

“We must expand access to quality PSET opportunities, improve the alignment between the supply of skills from the education system and labour market demands, and create effective pathways to employment.

“These efforts must be underpinned by economic growth, as without it, overcoming financial constraints in the PSET sector and generating sufficient demand for youth employment will remain a challenge. Addressing these issues is critical to improving the long-term prospects of South Africa’s youth and realising the benefits of rising educational attainment for national development.”